The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.11.03

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 0.9876
• Prev. Close: 0.9816
• % chg. over the last day: -0.61%

The dollar Index sharply strengthened yesterday after the speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. The US Federal Reserve expectedly raised interest rates by 0.75%. Still, at the press conference, the Fed chief indicated that it was premature to discuss a pause in interest rate hikes and added that the Central Bank was firmly committed to a restraining monetary policy to achieve price stability.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 0.9816,0.9755,0.9601.
• Resistance levels: 0.9971,0.9928,1.0055,1.0111,1.0162,1.0230

From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is still bullish. The price is trading below the moving levels but above the change in priority. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, but sellers’ pressure is weak due to divergence. Under such market conditions, buy trades should be considered from the support level of 0.9816 or 0.9755, but with additional confirmation. Sell deals can be considered from the resistance level of 0.9871, but also with confirmation.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks down through the support level of 0.9755 and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.1485
• Prev. Close: 1.1389
• % chg. over the last day: -0.84%

The British pound declined yesterday amid hawkish comments from Powell. The Bank of England will hold its monetary policy and interest rate meeting today. The rate is expected to rise by 0.75%. But analysts believe that such a move will not be enough to stop the rise in inflation. On the other hand, the UK economy is already on the way to recession. And the sharp rise in borrowing costs has already begun to cool some sectors of the economy, such as real estate.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.1337,1.1172,1.1093,1.0915,1.0817
• Resistance levels: 1.1450,1.1578,1.1698,1.1816,1.1901

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The price is trading below the moving averages. The MACD indicator is negative, but there is a divergence, and the sellers’ pressure is weak. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be considered from the support level of 1.1337, but better after confirmation. Sell trades are best to look for on intraday time frames, the nearest resistance level is 1.1450, but also better with confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks down of the 1.1172 support level and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 148.19
• Prev. Close: 147.79
• % chg. over the last day: -0.28%

The situation on the USD/JPY currency pair has not changed. After yesterday’s Fed meeting, it became clear that the US Federal Reserve will not pause and will continue to actively raise rates and trim the balance sheet. The interest rate differential between the Bank of Japan and the US Fed continues to widen. Such a situation will have a negative effect on the Japanese currency.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 146.37,145.50,144.91,144.19,143.00
• Resistance levels: 148.09,148.82,147.75,148.64,148.64,150.00,151.05

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bearish. The price is traded on the level of moving averages. The MACD indicator has become negative again, but the buyers’ pressure is still there. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be sought on the intraday time frames from the support level of 146.37, but only after the confirmation. Sell deals can be searched from the resistance level of 148.09 or 148.82, but only with additional confirmation, as the level has already been tested.

Alternative scenario:

If the price fixes above 150.00, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.3628
• Prev. Close: 1.3706
• % chg. over the last day: +0.57%

Today, many economists will be watching for Canadian Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland to speak on how the government is dealing with the heightened risks of a recession. The statement will provide information on the state of the Canadian economy in a challenging global environment and outline the government’s plan to continue to build the economy.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.3586,1.3515,1.3454
• Resistance levels: 1.3721,1.3855,1.3968

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bearish, but the price has approached the priority change level. The MACD indicator has become positive, and the buyers` pressure is increasing. The best way to sell is to consider the resistance level of 1.3721, but only after the additional confirmation. Buy trades should be considered on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.3586 or after the price fixation above 1.3721.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks out and consolidates above the resistance level of 1.3721, the uptrend will likely resume.