The EUR/USD currency pair
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
- Prev. Open: 1.1117
- Prev. Close: 1.1077
- % chg. over the last day: -0.36%
Germany’s Harmonized Annual Inflation Rate (HICP) fell to 2% in August from 2.6% in July, lower than the estimate of 2.3% and the lowest since March 2021. Spain’s harmonized inflation rate also fell to 2.4% in August from 2.9% in July, the lowest since August 2023 and below the prognosis of 2.5%. This data strengthens the ECB’s case for another rate cut on September 12, which policymakers believe is likely.
Trading recommendations
- Support levels: 1.1060,1.1017,1.0950,1.0905,1.0884
- Resistance levels: 1.1100,1.1146,1.1191,1.1275
The trend on the EUR/USD currency pair in the hourly time frame is bullish. Yesterday, the price dropped below the priority change level and was consolidated below. The price has reached the support level of 1.1060, where partial sales fixation is observed. The price is expected to make at least one more wave of decline. The resistance level of 1.1100 can be considered for selling. Intraday, you can look for buying up to this level, but with a short stop loss.
Alternative scenario:if the price breaks through the resistance level of 1.1191 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.
News feed for: 2024.08.30
- German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
- Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- US PCE Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
- US Michigan Consumer Expectations (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).
The GBP/USD currency pair
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
- Prev. Open: 1.3191
- Prev. Close: 1.3168
- % chg. over the last day: -0.17%
Since there are no important economic events in the UK this week, the main dynamics in GBP/USD pricing will be created by the US dollar. Today, in the US, the PCE Price Index inflation report will be released, which is considered to be the US Fed’s favorite inflation indicator. The annual PCE Index is expected to remain at 2.5%. A rise in the PCE Index will ease recession fears and reduce hopes of aggressive rate cuts. This will temporarily strengthen the US dollar, which will put pressure on the pound and other risk assets. On the other hand, a sharp easing of inflationary pressures will increase the likelihood of a more aggressive rate cut in September, which will put pressure on the US dollar but give a green light to risk assets.
Trading recommendations
- Support levels: 1.3137,1.3075,1.2973,1.2932,1.2848,1.2800
- Resistance levels: 1.3306
From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bullish. The British currency looks more confident than the euro. The price is currently trying to test the support level of 1.3137. A move below 1.3137 is undesirable for buyers. It is expected that after testing this level, the price will resume medium-term growth. There are no optimal entry points for selling now.
Alternative scenario:if the price breaks down the support level of 1.3075 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.
No news for today
The USD/JPY currency pair
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
- Prev. Open: 144.52
- Prev. Close: 144.98
- % chg. over the last day: +0.32%
Japan’s consumption rose in the last quarter for the first time in five quarters, helped in part by recent strong wage growth and tax relief from Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. The improving economic picture reflected in Thursday’s report lends some support to the Bank of Japan’s July decision to raise interest rates and reduce bond purchases as part of its policy tightening. Tokyo’s benchmark Consumer Price Index rose to an annualized rate of 2.4% in August 2024, accelerating for the fourth straight month and beating market expectations for a 2.2% increase. It was also the highest reading in six months, reinforcing the hawkish outlook for the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy.
Trading recommendations
- Support levels: 144.11,142.69,142.80,140.22,137.26
- Resistance levels: 145.56,146.62,148.29,150.88,151.26,153.80
From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bearish. Yesterday, the price reached the resistance level of 145.56, where the sellers showed initiative. A move above 145.56 is not desirable for the sellers. Now, the yen is expected to strengthen further to 144.11. There is no optimal entry point for buying now, despite the intraday buying pressure.
Alternative scenario:if the price breaks above the resistance level of 146.48, the uptrend will likely resume.
News feed for: 2024.08.30
- Japan Tokyo Core CPI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
- Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
- Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3).
The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
- Prev. Open: 2504
- Prev. Close: 2527
- % chg. over the last day: +0.91%
Rising inflation expectations in the US are supporting gold demand as an inflation hedge after the 10-year breakeven inflation rate rose to a 3-week high on Thursday. In addition, gold fund buying is supporting gold prices as long gold positions in ETFs rose to a 6-month high on Wednesday. Investors’ focus today is on the PCE Price Index inflation data. A rise in the PCE Index will diminish hopes of aggressive rate cuts. This will temporarily strengthen the US dollar, which will put pressure on precious metals and indices.
Trading recommendations
- Support levels: 2511,2494,2479,2451,2440,2416,2367,2343
- Resistance levels: 2532
From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. Yesterday, buyers took the initiative from the support level of 2511 and are trying to hold this level. Liquidity is starting to narrow. A breakdown of 2511 will open the way for the price to 2494. But until that happens, intraday we can look for buying up to the resistance level of 2532.
Alternative scenario:if the price breaks down the support level of 2451, the downtrend will likely resume.
News feed for: 2024.08.30
- US PCE Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
- US Michigan Consumer Expectations (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).
This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.