The central banks of Norway and Sweden continue to raise rates. The Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England press on pause

The Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey of US business activity for September fell from 25.5 to 13.5, weaker than expectations of 1.0. US home sales for August unexpectedly fell by 0.7% m/m to a 7-month low of 4.04 million units, weaker than expectations for a 0.7% m/m increase to 4.10 million units.

A representative of the ECB Governing Council and Bundesbank President Nagel said yesterday that it is too early to say that interest rates have reached a plateau, as inflation is still “too high” and forecasts still show only a slow decline towards the ECB’s 2% target. Another ECB official, Central Bank of Ireland Governor Makhlouf, said that an ECB rate hike is still possible in October and that it is too early to plan for a rate cut next March.

The Bank of England (BoE) unexpectedly left the rate unchanged at 5.25% yesterday, although the market expected an increase to 5.5%. However, the margin of votes was only 5 vs. 4. The accompanying statement of the bank stated the following: “If there are signs of more sustained inflationary pressures, further tightening of monetary policy will be required.” Overall, the Bank of England is following the same path as the Fed and ECB – a pause with a possible increase in the future.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) followed the ECB and the Fed and left the rate unchanged at 1.75%, although the market was expecting a 0.25% increase at the current meeting. By taking a pause, the Central Bank kept the door open for a further increase. At the same time, the Swiss National Bank said it could intervene (in support of the Swiss franc exchange rate) in the foreign exchange market as needed.

The National Bank of Sweden (Riksbank) raised the rate by 25 bps to 4% and may raise it again as “inflationary pressures are too high.” The inflation forecast for 2024 has been raised to 4.6% and will be 8.6% this year after 8.4% in 2022. Meanwhile, the Riksbank said it would start intervening to support the Swedish krona exchange rate to the level of $8 bn and €2 bn (about 1/4 of its foreign exchange reserves) over the next 4-6 months, calling it “hedging foreign exchange reserves.”

Norway’s Central Bank (Norges Bank) on Thursday raised its main deposit rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%, the highest since 2008. The move adds pressure to Norway’s economy, which is currently experiencing a slowdown. The bank also hinted at the possibility of a further rate hike in December. In addition to the rate hike, Norges Bank slightly revised its key rate forecasts, suggesting that it will be around 4.5% until 2024.

Crude oil prices rose yesterday after Russia said it would ban gasoline and diesel exports in an attempt to stabilize domestic fuel prices. The ban will reduce fuel supplies by about 1 million BPD, which is about 3.4% of total global demand (according to Vortexa), and will further squeeze supply in an already tight global market.

Asian markets were mostly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down by 1.37%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) lost 1.24%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) decreased by 1.29% on the day, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative by 1.37% on Thursday.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) left interest rates at negative levels as expected. The BOJ said it will maintain the current yield curve control (YCC) rates, allowing bond yields to fluctuate between minus 0.5% and plus 0.5%, allowing up to 1%. The BOJ also said that amid high uncertainty surrounding the Japanese economy, especially amid slowing growth in countries that are its largest trading partners, it will continue to ease monetary policy and strive to achieve its 2% annualized inflation target. Japanese 10-year bond yields fell nearly 2% after the BOJ statement. Data released earlier on Friday showed Japan’s consumer price index inflation rose more than expected in August amid solid consumer spending, rising oil prices, and a renewed yen depreciation.