Oil prices are declining due to weakening demand from China. US and European stock indices continue to rise in price

On Friday, the Dow Jones (US30) Index gained 0.24% (+2.79% for the week), while the S&P 500 (US500) Index gained 0.20% (+3.78% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 0.21% (for the week +4.99%). A busy week of economic data helped the market recover from earlier losses in August. Lower inflation, strong retail sales, and fewer jobless claims helped calm fears of a possible recession. In addition, investor sentiment was boosted by Federal Reserve officials signaling a possible rate cut in September, which supported the week’s momentum.

The US presidential race is heating up as Democrats seek to boost Vice Presidential nominee Kamala Harris during the party’s convention in Chicago, which begins on Monday. During the fourday event, prominent Democratic figures are expected to deliver speeches to bolster Harris’s support. Harris has energized the Democratic base and narrowed the gap with Republican nominee Donald Trump in some opinion polls. As the election race tightens, investors seek clarity on Harris’ policy positions. In particular, Harris has emphasized her commitment to maintaining the independence of the Federal Reserve, which is in stark contrast to Trump’s stance.

Equity markets in Europe mostly rose on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.77% (for the week +3.03%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.35% (for the week +2.09%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.59% (for the week +2.52%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.43% (for the week +1.75%).

WTI crude futures fell 1.9% to settle at $76.65 per barrel on Friday following reports that Qatar urged Iran to ease tensions with Israel during ceasefire talks in the Gaza Strip. The drop in oil prices also reflects broader concerns about weakening demand from China, the world’s top oil importer. Recent data on China’s economy show slowing growth, falling housing prices, and rising unemployment, which has prompted Chinese refineries to cut back on oil processing. In addition, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered their estimates for oil demand growth due to China’s weakening economy.

Asian markets were mostly up last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 7.91%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 1.15%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 1.91% over 5 trading days, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive 2.49%.

The Nikkei 225 Index (JP225) fell by 1.77%, and the broader Topix Index lost 1.4% on Monday, ending a fiveday run of gains amid profittaking and a rising yenpressured domestic equities. A stronger yen hurts the profitability outlook for Japan’s exportoriented industries and discourages investors from borrowing the currency to invest in higheryielding assets. Markets now await Japanese inflation data on Friday to clarify the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) monetary policy path.

Thailand’s economy grew by 0.8% in the second quarter of 2024, compared with market estimates of 0.9% after a marginally revised 1.1% growth in the first quarter. The slowdown came amid heightened political uncertainty due to several major court cases in the constitutional court. Private consumption growth slowed sharply (0.3% vs. 1.1% in the first quarter) amid uncertainty over the fate of the $14 billion stimulus plan.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,554.25 +11.03 (+0.20%)

Dow Jones (US30) 40,659.76 +96.70 (+0.24%)

DAX (DE40) 18,322.40 +139.16 (+0.77%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,311.41 −35.94 (−0.43%)

USD Index 102.40 −0.06 (−0.06%)

by JustMarkets, 2024.08.19